This US-based futures forecast identifies four major drivers of change reshaping K-12 education over the coming decade: eroding public trust in institutions, accelerating technological change, demographic shifts and a widening “relevance gap” between the world of school and the lives of young people. Using scenario-based provocations, it invites education leaders to consider how learning experiences, providers and governance structures may need to fundamentally change. While US-focused, its framing of the relevance gap — young people optimistic about but unprepared for the future, finding school increasingly disconnected from their realities — translates directly to the Australian middle years context.